曾淵滄專欄：超人增持否反映長和前景

[size=5]長江實業（ 001）、和記黃埔（ 013）今日公佈業績，固然是市場焦點，今日也是中國遠洋（ 1919）公佈業績的日子，中國遠洋是中國最大的國企航運股，是否能轉虧為盈是很重要的參考信息。
市場上多家大行已經為長實、和黃作了盈利預測，大家不妨耐心地等待業績公佈，看看公佈的業績與大行的預期有多大的分別。除此之外，大家也不妨留意，業績公佈後，李嘉誠有沒有再繼續買入長實、和黃股票，這才是真正的重點，因為這將反映長實、和黃今後的利潤前景，已公佈的業績畢竟是歷史了，投資永遠是向前看。
當然，我不是說過去的業績不重要，從已公佈的業績中，我們可以觀察上市企業的盈利增長能力。


外國品牌難進軍日本
昨日我談到日本目前缺糧缺水，要進口食品飲料，不過，過去日本進口食品、飲料，皆以代工形式入口，換言之，供應商只是代為生產，品牌依然是日本的品牌，如果你曾經到過日本旅行、你在日本的超市中很難發現來自中國的品牌食品與飲料，日本超市中的日本餃子、快熟 麪……這些食品可能在中國生產，或可能在日本生產，但是，一定是日本自己的品牌，外國品牌不易打入日本市場。至今為止，在香港上市的這些內地食品飲料品牌能不能借日本大地震，核輻射驚魂而打入日本市場仍是未知之數，當然，若只是炒概念，有足夠的想像力再加上有人帶頭炒，就可以炒起來，炒起來之後才看看概念是否可以變真實。
去年年中，汽車股炒「十二．五」的內需概念，炒過龍而下跌，下跌的理由除了炒過龍之外，大城市交通阻塞導致一些城市的政府開始控制汽車的數量增長也是理由之一，不過，生產拖拉機車的第一拖拉機（ 038）則不受影響，畢竟拖拉機車只行駛在農村裏，受到「十二．五」中推動農村經濟的政策所支持，一拖公佈的業績驕人，盈利增 118%，這是另一隻我多次推薦的股。

曾淵滄
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